The use of cash in Germany as a means of payment has been on a clear decline for some years now. A strategic foresight study commissioned by the Bundesbank presents scenarios in which the availability and acceptance of cash worsen. In particular, the decline in the use of cash could generate a self-reinforcing process which ends up considerably constraining the possibility of using cash to make payments. Against this background, the present report lays out current arguments for and against the use of cash from politics, academia and society and compares them against the results of a representative public opinion survey. At the centre is the question as to what benefits our society derives from cash and whether cash should be maintained in the age of digital payments.

The survey shows that most people in Germany currently prefer cashless payment media. However, more than two-thirds still do regard cash as important from a personal perspective. Even more survey respondents regard the significance of cash to society as high. The results indicate that cash has additional benefits to respondents going beyond its use as an everyday means of payment.

Respondents believe that cash has many advantages, the most important of which is that it is technically fail-safe. As a purely physical means of payment, cash provides protection against disruptions to the technical infrastructure resulting from events such as power failures, cyberattacks or natural disasters. An almost equal number of respondents believe that children can learn about using money through handling cash. More than four out of five respondents regard inclusion, the in-person transfer of monetary amounts and data protection as good reasons for maintaining cash.

Criticism of cash revolves mostly around illicit activities. More than half of respondents regard the use of cash in connection with illicit work, tax evasion and money laundering as a reason for limiting cash usage. The fact that cash is a target of hold-ups and ATM explosive attacks is regarded by a majority of respondents as an argument against its use. Further misgivings about cash concern manufacturing and transport costs, the time it takes to pay at a point of sale and hygiene. However, most respondents are not convinced by these criticisms. 

Despite criticisms, on the whole a clear majority of respondents also want a long-term future with cash as well. Most people are not calling for measures to strengthen the acceptance and availability of cash for now, though. However, the Bundesbank sees a need for action in order to comply with the desire for a future with cash. One of the things the Bundesbank has done is to create the National Cash Forum in order to, together with other cash handlers, prepare initiatives to strengthen the cash cycle. Moreover, stakeholders from politics, academia and society are invited to give thought to the future of cash.

There has been an ongoing decline in the use of cash as a means of payment in Germany. Consumers used cash to settle around two-thirds of their day-to-day payments in 2017, but that proportion had dropped to just under one-half by 2023. 1 Developments in cash payments prompted the Bundesbank to commission a study entitled “Cash of the future” in order to systematically illuminate the opportunities and challenges facing cash. 2 This study develops three main future scenarios for the use of cash up until 2037. In all three scenarios, the availability and acceptance of cash worsen and use continues to decline. In two of the three scenarios, freedom of choice between cash and cashless payment instruments is virtually non-existent. 3 One of the drivers behind these scenarios is the potential interplay between reduced usage, poor access to cash withdrawal facilities and falling acceptance: lower demand for cash incentivises savings banks and credit institutions to scale back on ATMs and bank counters. 4 At the same time, a growing number of retailers could tend to no longer accept cash due to the costs involved. As this could potentially dampen cash usage, this would result in a self-reinforcing negative trend in cash usage. Action needs to be taken if cash is to be maintained as a generally available and accepted means of payment and store of value now and in the future.

This raises the following questions: what advantages does cash have in the first place, and would it not be possible to do away with cash altogether in the age of digitalisation? This has been the topic of debate for some years in politics, academia and society. Proponents of cash cite, for instance, technical failure safety and the societal functions cash performs. Critics, on the other hand, emphasise the role of cash in crime – as an aid (to, for instance, tax evasion) or as a target (of, for example, explosive attacks on ATMs).

The present report provides an overview of the German public’s opinion of cash. It lays out current arguments for and against the use of cash from politics, academia and society and compares them against the results of a representative public opinion survey. At the centre is the question as to what benefits our society derives from cash and whether cash should be maintained in the age of digital payments.

Cash has a number of unique features. These include its physical and haptic properties and also the possibility of transferring it directly and, at least in the short term, independently of technical infrastructures or intermediaries. These properties give cash some advantages that can only be poorly replicated, if at all, by digital payment media – which makes them potential reasons for maintaining cash over the long term. At the same time, the aforementioned properties have some disadvantages that are occasionally cited as arguments against maintaining cash. Below, we will present the advantages and disadvantages that are put forward in the political, academic and societal debate on cash.

Cash is a fallback solution whenever technical infrastructures go down and enhances the resilience of payment systems in a crisis situation. Digitalisation exposes payments to technical malfunctions caused by power outages, IT issues and cyberattacks, as well as in crisis situations. 5 In some of these situations, cash can be used to make payments even without a technical infrastructure. Disruptions to electronic payment systems are rare in Germany. Nonetheless, in May 2022 a software bug caused the gradual failure of up to 10 % of all retail card payment terminals in Germany. According to a Bundesbank survey, 29 % of consumers reported having been affected. 6 It took, in some cases, several weeks to fix the bug. Even though this incident was an isolated case and security requirements and systems for cashless means of payment are steadily improving, cash can make retailers more resilient to such limited technical outages and even more severe crisis scenarios.  In that vein, the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe) recommends keeping a sufficient stock of cash at home in readiness for a crisis. 7 Keeping cash reserves is necessary for cash to perform its function as a fallback solution since disruptions can also either massively restrict or even completely cut off access to cash.

Cash is central bank money and can also be used as a store of value. Cash is currently the only way the public can hold fail-safe central bank money. It is an anchor that underpins the confidence of many in the general public, especially in politically or economically difficult times. To underline the point: during the financial crisis in 2008 and at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, demand for cash rose significantly in Germany. 8 According to estimates by the Bundesbank, at the end of the third quarter of 2024 some €395 billion worth of banknotes were being held in Germany as a store of value. However, household surveys suggest that the amounts are highly unevenly distributed among the general population, with a considerable share of households having either low cash reserves or none whatsoever. 9

In bricks-and-mortar retail, cash is an alternative to payments using cards branded with international card schemes. The European market for payment cards is shaped largely by international card companies. One reason is because many European countries do not have a domestic card network of their own – such as the girocard in Germany. Another is because cards issued nationally cannot be used on a stand-alone basis within Europe, i.e. without a “co-badge” with an international card system. 10 Despite great efforts on the part of European actors, there is currently still no independent solution for digital payment apps and wallets which can be used and is accepted across the euro area. The European Central Bank is just one party that regards as problematic the domination of the European market by international payment service providers. 11 Reasons include the possibility of stifled competition and dependence on non-European providers for critical payment systems infrastructures. In order to improve the strategic autonomy and resilience of payments in Europe, the Eurosystem is supporting the development of a market-based, Europe-wide solution for electronic payments in the retail sector. In addition, there are plans to develop a digital euro – an electronic means of payment issued directly by the Eurosystem and which can be used free of charge to make payments in stores, online or between persons across the euro area. 12 As a fail-safe analogue means of payment that is accepted throughout the euro area and is always available, euro cash also continues to help limit dependence on non-European payment providers. 

Cash protects privacy. Cash transactions cannot be traced by third parties and give the user complete autonomy over the use of their personal information. In the case of cashless payments, not only buyers and sellers but also other parties are involved in the transaction, such as credit institutions, payment settlement providers, card issuers or technology companies. The level of data protection for cashless payment media varies. Whereas Germany’s girocard card system is regarded as not requiring much in the way of data, providers of internet and mobile payment methods often request sensitive data such as geographical data and information on the products purchased. 13

Cash enables participation. Some people are excluded in whole or in part from electronic payments. Reasons here include physical and health impairments, cognitive impairments, low technical skills, low literacy levels, precarious economic circumstances, a lack of language proficiency or because the user is under-age. No technical or contractual conditions are required in order to use cash. It gives everyone the opportunity to participate in economic life and thus strengthens social cohesion. 14 Empirical observations show that, in particular, people with low levels of formal education and income, non-citizens of Germany, persons with health impairments and older people use cash more frequently. 15 Although financial inclusion in Germany is high, around ½ % of the adult population in Germany (around 344,000 people) has no access to a current account and the associated electronic payment methods. 16 These people rely entirely on cash to make payments. Ease of use is also a crucial factor in privately organised sales with a social character, such as flea markets, volunteer bazaars and community or club festivals, as these usually do not have technology necessary for electronic payments. 17

Children learn about using money through handling cash. Banknotes and coins are often children’s first contact with money and are important for acquiring financial expertise. Children generally receive their first pocket money in the form of cash. The physical and haptic properties of cash help children comprehend the value of money and the finite nature of purchasing power before they then learn to find their way in a hybrid payment world once they get older. 18 Cash makes it possible to make independent purchases at an early stage, for example from the “tuck shop” during break-time at school or in a bakery. Dealing with cash is therefore also of educational and societal importance and can help people to learn early on how to how to manage money responsibly. That, in turn, can form the basis for learning how to plan a household budget as an adult. 19

Cash can help people to keep an eye on spending and household budgets. If payments are predominantly made in cash, a look in one’s wallet will tell that person how much of a given budget is still available. 20 Because of its tangible nature, cash is particularly useful for those who have trouble making abstract calculations. 21 In addition, cash can exert discipline in a specific shopping situation. It limits the budget available in one’s wallet at short notice and sends a strong price signal when counting and handing it over. 22 That way, it can protect the purchaser from impulse buying, for instance. 23 Nonetheless, there is empirical evidence that cashless payment media are likewise becoming increasingly well-suited for budgeting purposes. 24 In everyday life, however, 48 % of respondents still consciously use cash in order to keep track of their spending.

Cash is not only a means of payment, but also performs societal and communicative functions. 25 The personal transfer of cash gifts, donations or handouts can be a visible expression of appreciation, recognition, gratitude or care that strengthens the relationship between the participants. It is not only the monetary amount itself but also the gesture that is regarded as valuable. Indeed, cash is still highly important when it comes to private payments. Although nearly half of all adults prefer cashless means of payment to give money to friends, relatives and acquaintances, nearly three-quarters of payments to these parties are still made using cash. 26

Cash facilitates the shadow economy, tax fraud and money laundering. Cash can be transferred directly from person to person without the need for any technical infrastructure, meaning that no data trail is left behind when paying. This feature, which is positive in and of itself, can also be abused if cash is used to pay for goods and services in the shadow economy or to mask revenue and financial flows. It is very difficult to gauge to what extent cash is used for this purpose. 27  

Cash is also a target for criminal activity. In addition to theft, robbery and currency counterfeiting, ATM detonations have attracted particular public attention in recent years. The number of offences has risen sharply, with behaviour becoming increasingly reckless. In 2023, the Federal Criminal Police Office registered 461 such explosions, which involved the theft of €28.4 million in total as well as extensive property damage in many cases. 28

The production and logistics of cash generate costs for commercial banks, retailers and the public sector. It is difficult to quantify the costs of payment transactions because they are incurred by different actors, and payment processes are often integrated into large-scale business processes. A 2012 study for the euro area showed, on average, that cash generated the lowest aggregate unit cost per transaction. 29 In 2019, the Bundesbank and the EHI Retail Institute conducted a study comparing the costs of cash and card payments in the retail sector in Germany. In terms of costs per transaction, cash was the cheapest means of payment, while girocards proved the cheapest when measured in terms of sales. 30 As some of the costs incurred as a result of payment transactions are fixed costs, the unit costs of a payment method depend heavily on how much it is used. In the future, cash will probably therefore be in a weaker position in cost comparisons as its use declines.

Cash payments take a long time and hold up proceedings at the point of sale. Part of the societal cost of payment instruments is how long it takes to use them at the point of sale. Lengthy payment processes generate staff costs in the retail sector and are time-consuming for the person paying and the next customers in line. A survey commissioned by the Bundesbank in 2022 measured transaction times using different means of payment in the retail sector. It found that payments made via smartphone and smartwatch were the quickest (14.0 seconds on average). Cash was only the second fastest means of payment, with transactions taking 18.7 seconds on average. Contactless payments made by card took an average of 19.3 seconds, with times varying strongly depending on whether or not a PIN was entered (23.2 seconds versus 15.2 seconds, respectively). If the card was inserted into a device, the process took 25.7 seconds. 31

Cash is sometimes dirty and can transmit illnesses. In addition to speed, hygiene plays an important role for many people when choosing how to pay. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the general public was unsure about the hygiene of cash payments. In a representative study carried out at the time, 8 % of respondents reported using cash less often because they were afraid of catching the virus. 32 However, this concern turned out to be largely unfounded, as an analysis by the ECB showed in 2021. 33

Cash is impeding the digitalisation of society. The digitalisation of society is supposed to improve people’s quality of life, strengthen Germany as a business location, ensure sustainable and efficient use of resources and enable society to respond more quickly to change. 34 Electronic payments, which allow payment transactions to be integrated into digital business processes, also contribute to this. However, there is still growth potential for the market penetration of cashless means of payment. Despite significant increases in recent years, it was only possible to use electronic methods for 81 % of payments at physical points of sale in 2023. By contrast, it was possible to pay using cash in 94 % of cases. 35 Bitkom, Germany’s digital association, calls for the broad-based acceptance of at least one digital payment method at the point of sale, while preserving the freedom of choice between cash and digital payment options. 36 In e-commerce, which has become considerably more important as a result of digitalisation, payments are almost exclusively electronic. In future, a potential digital euro, could, as legal tender, provide another digital payment option – both online and in physical shops.

In certain situations, cash can make sufficiently expansionary monetary policy more difficult. The main instrument of conventional monetary policy is the short-term interest rate, which allows the central bank to influence inflation over the medium term. As long as cash is available as an interest-free store of value, the central bank cannot impose significantly negative interest rates as this would prompt savers and credit institutions to convert their account balances into cash. Cash thus creates a lower bound of below, but close to, zero. In the mid-2010s, in an environment of persistently low interest rates, some economists argued that a significantly negative interest rate might be necessary in certain situations to maintain price stability and that cash might hinder the implementation of this monetary policy strategy. However, non-standard monetary policy measures mean that alternative policy options are available even during periods of low interest rates. 37 When the low interest rate period that had lasted many years in the euro area and other currency areas came to an end in 2022, this debate became less relevant. 

The Bundesbank has been conducting representative surveys on payment behaviour among the German population since 2008 (see the supplementary information entitled “Payment behaviour in Germany”). The studies provide regular information about people’s individual preferences when choosing a means of payment. In 2023, participants were additionally asked to evaluate the importance of cash to themselves and to society as a whole. The specific questions covered the societal advantages and disadvantages of cash, the outlook for the future and potential measures to actively support cash as a means of payment. 

The latest study shows that most people in Germany today favour cashless means of payment (44 %), 28 % prefer cash and 28 % have no firm view. Cashless means of payment like cards are popular mainly because people do not need to worry about whether they have enough cash with them for their shopping (77 %) and because payment is quick and easy (40 %). The most frequently cited benefits of cash, on the other hand, are privacy protection (63 %), immediate payment (47 %) and an overview of spending (41 %).

Although most respondents prefer to pay electronically, cash nonetheless remains important to them. 69 % of respondents say it is important to be able to pay in cash themselves. People who pay predominantly using cash almost unanimously agree that it is important to them (98 %). Even 40 % of people with a clear preference for cashless payments share this view. Older respondents and groups with impaired participation in society tend to consider cash more important. 38

Assessments of the personal and societal importance of cash may differ. For example, some respondents might not consider cash to be important to them personally, while clearly recognising that cash plays a major role for other individuals. When considering the importance of cash to society, people may also take into account other aspects beyond individual cost-benefit considerations, such as the use of cash as a fallback solution in crisis situations or its educational value for children.

The data show that a large proportion of respondents (72 %) see cash as being highly important to society. Even people who prefer cashless means of payment mostly describe cash as very or fairly important to society (62 %). For those who prefer to pay in cash, this share amounts to 84 %. The majority of young people, who use cash less frequently, also believe that cash is important for society. Although some sections of the population do not use cash very much themselves, they seem to be aware of its importance to others. This explains the fact that people’s opinions on the importance of cash to society are much more similar across different groups of respondents than their assessments of the importance of cash to them as individuals.

Respondents believe that cash has many benefits for society. The chart below shows which societal arguments respondents agree with when asked whether cash should be retained in the future. 39 People agree almost unanimously that cash is important as a fallback solution in the event of technical disruptions (95 %) and because of its educational value for children (94 %). 80 % of respondents also find the aspects of inclusion, data protection and the communicative function of cash to be good reasons for preserving the use of cash. Independence from international payment service providers plays a role for around three-quarters of respondents. 40 Aspects such as the monitoring of spending (68 %) and storing value (57 %) receive comparatively low ratings, although the majority of the population still agrees with these arguments. 

However, the survey also highlights criticisms of cash from a societal viewpoint. Just like for the positive aspects of cash, participants were asked which societal arguments they would agree with if the use of cash were hypothetically to be restricted. 58 % of respondents consider illicit work, tax evasion and money laundering to be key disadvantages of cash. 54 % of respondents see robberies and explosive attacks on ATMs as problematic. People have very different opinions about these arguments. More than 20 % of respondents strongly agree with the statements, but almost as many strongly disagree. Only a minority of people think that the costs of cash, the perceived long payment duration and hygiene aspects would justify restrictions on the use of cash. Respondents find the arguments relating to digitalisation and monetary policy of little relevance (18 % in each case). 41

People generally see cash in a positive light, which is also reflected in their hopes for the future. A clear majority of people want cash to have a place in the future. Around two-thirds of respondents hope that in 15 years’ time, the use of cash will still be the same as it is today. Around one-tenth even want cash to be used more frequently again. However, 23 % also hope that cash will almost have disappeared from everyday life. By contrast, only 4 % would like to see it abolished within the next 15 years.

The majority of people do not currently see a need for measures to actively support cash. Around two-thirds of respondents expect cash to be used to the same extent (or even more) in five yearsʼ time as it is today. As a result, the majority do not currently see a need for measures to promote cash (50 %). When asked specifically about potential measures, 39 % are in favour of abolishing ATM fees, 37 % are in favour of requiring cash to be accepted at the point of sale and 35 % are in favour of sufficient provision of ATMs.

The vast majority of the German population would like to continue using cash in the future and considers it important for society. This is clear from the results of the representative public survey presented in this article. The main arguments in favour of maintaining cash are that it can be used in a crisis, it has educational value for children and it is societally inclusive. By contrast, the general public takes a critical view of the role cash plays in tax crime and other criminal activity. Overall, there is greater support for the arguments in favour of cash than for the arguments against cash. On the whole, there is a clear desire among the general public to continue using cash as a means of payment and store of value in the future. 

Can we take a future with cash for granted? Almost two-thirds of the German population anticipate that in five years' time, cash will be used to the same extent as it is today (or even more frequently). It follows that most respondents do not consider it necessary to actively support cash to ensure that it will still exist in the future. However, this opinion contradicts empirical findings which suggest that measures might be needed in future to safeguard the broad-based usability of cash. Although access to and acceptance of cash in Germany can still be described as good at present, the first signs of a deterioration are already apparent. 42 A strategic foresight study commissioned by the Bundesbank also assumes that the use of cash will decline over the next few years. In two of the three scenarios constructed, the combination of a reduction in cash demand, acceptance and availability leads to a situation in which cash can only be used to a limited extent and can no longer fulfil its societal functions by 2037. 43  

A digital euro would complement cash in a meaningful way, but not replace it. Ensuring that people in Europe continue to have access to central bank money is especially important to the Eurosystem central banks. With the digital euro, the Eurosystem is planning to introduce a digital form of central bank money. It will be issued by the Eurosystem and is intended to make payments more efficient whilst also boosting Europe’s resilience and autonomy against non-European payment service providers in the world of digital payments. In addition, it would ensure a high level of privacy for the people paying. The digital euro could thus also offer some of the societal benefits of cash and transfer them to the digital space. 

The cash strategy pursued by the Bundesbank and the Eurosystem aims to make sure that cash remains available to consumers in the euro area in the future. 44  As long as people still wish to use cash as a means of payment and store of value, it should remain widely available and generally accepted. An important step along the way is the European Union’s proposal for a regulation on euro cash as legal tender, which aims to safeguard the role of cash in the euro area. 45 In addition, the Bundesbank is making its own efforts to ensure that cash is preserved. Last year, it launched the National Cash Forum to enable an ongoing and open dialogue between the relevant stakeholders in the cash cycle in Germany. 46 By building four new branches, the Bundesbank is also making a long-term investment in an efficient and future-proof branch network so that it can continue to make cash, its core product, available to society in the future. However, the Bundesbank can only strengthen the availability and acceptance of cash by working in partnership with others. To ensure that cash continues to play a role in the future, the support of cash handlers and policymakers is still needed, too.

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