Only moderate changes in the general government deficit and debt ratio are currently on the cards, although a new course is likely to be set after the general election.

The deficit ratio will probably fall slightly in 2024 (2023: 2.6 %), and in the absence of new government bills, a further small decline appears likely for 2025. However, this is due to fairly strong, opposing developments.

The expiry of temporary measures previously in place to address the energy crisis is having a lowering effect on the deficit. 2

By contrast, additional expenditure in some areas and the phase of economic weakness are increasing the deficit. The Armed Forces Fund and the Climate Fund are likely to have significantly higher outflows overall than in 2023. It remains difficult to gauge precisely what this will look like. The high inflation rates of recent years are continuing to leave their mark with a time lag, particularly in the form of sharply rising personnel expenditure, with the public sector lagging behind the private sector. At the same time, more subdued price dynamics and weak developments in the real economy are, when viewed in isolation, reducing growth in taxes and social contributions. In addition, weak economic developments are driving up labour market-related expenditure temporarily. Moreover, spending on pensions, healthcare and long-term care is rising dynamically. Overall, the social security funds are likely to record deficits and draw on their reserves, and that is in spite of considerably higher contribution rates (see also the supplementary information entitled “Social contribution rates to rise sharply”).

The debt ratio could fall moderately by the end of 2025 (end-2023: 62.9 %). Its decline is decelerating compared with the previous two years. This is because nominal GDP

The outlook for government finances depends to a significant extent on the course that is set for economic and fiscal policy. There is a consensus that Germany is facing significant challenges, particularly as a result of demographic change, high energy costs and global economic and geopolitical developments. In this context, the task of the state is, not least, to ensure adequate framework conditions for the social market economy. Central government has a pivotal role to play in this. However, state and local governments must also do their part in their respective spheres of responsibility.

From the Bundesbank’s perspective, sound government finances and binding fiscal rules are key to ensuring fiscal and economic resilience and tackling the challenges ahead. This is because adequate framework conditions must also include government debt staying within limits consistent with stability. Binding fiscal rules are there to safeguard this. To avoid overwhelming government finances even in view of the challenges faced at present, it is important to provide services efficiently and to review existing expenditure and special rules on taxes and social contributions.

In the case of a low debt ratio, a moderate increase in borrowing scope is then justifiable from a stability policy perspective. The Bundesbank has proposed a reformed debt brake with a two-tier borrowing limit that could be used to give preferential treatment to investment expenditure. For example, the first limit for structural net borrowing could be set at ½ % of GDP

It has not yet been decided what budget limits under the new EU

Tax revenue rose by 1½ % in the third quarter (or +€3 billion). A sharp decline in income tax on dividends (-€6 billion) overshadowed otherwise solid growth. This fall was due to intra-year shifts compared with the previous year and a large dividend payment made last year raising revenue for that year. By contrast, revenue from the EU

At 6½ %, growth in wage tax receipts was dynamic. Growth was thus stronger than in the first half of the year (see Table 5.1). The fact that taxable regular wage adjustments gradually replaced tax-free inflation compensation bonuses is likely to have played a role here. However, tax cuts at the beginning of the year – especially to compensate for the bracket creep of the previous year – are continuing to significantly slow growth.

Revenue from profit-related taxes decreased by 8 % due to a one-off effect on income tax on dividends. Excluding this tax, it rose dynamically. The slump in income tax on dividends is due to the fact that a large dividend payment by a logistics company last year raised revenue for that year. In addition, this year dividend distributions were concentrated more in the second quarter – in 2023, these had been concentrated more in the third quarter. By contrast, withholding tax on interest income and capital gains continued to rise sharply. The increase is likely to be mainly attributable to a significant rise in interest income. This is because the average interest rate level for deposits was still noticeably higher than in the previous year. Revenue from assessed income tax rose considerably. Compensation for bracket creep slowed here too, albeit to a much lesser extent than wage tax. By contrast, revenue from corporation tax fell significantly. There was a moderate fall in advance payments for the current year, a major revenue item.

Revenue from VAT

According to the updated official tax estimate, tax revenue will go up by just under 3 % on the year in 2024. Legislative changes are reducing growth slightly. 7

Wage tax revenue will rise by 5½ %, and thus on a similar scale to gross wages and salaries. Compensation for the high bracket creep of the previous year will reduce the growth rate by 4½ percentage points. However, this roughly corresponds to the additional revenue generated by price-related bracket creep plus real wage-related automatic income tax increases in the current year. 8

Overall, profit-related taxes will rise slightly, which is due entirely to the strong growth in withholding tax on interest income and capital gains. Without this, revenue would fall markedly, largely in line with macroeconomic assumptions regarding the development of profits. Profit-related taxes are moving in different directions: there are sharp declines in both corporation tax and income tax on dividends. By contrast, assessed income tax and local business tax are moving sideways.

Revenue from VAT

In 2025, tax revenue is projected to increase by 4½ %. The assumed macroeconomic developments actually point to growth of just 3 %. In particular, however, it will no longer be possible to pay out temporary wage components tax-free (inflation compensation bonus). Taken in isolation, this will boost growth in revenue from wage tax by 3 percentage points. 9

For 2026, the tax estimate projects an increase of 4½ %, followed by an average of 3½ % in the subsequent years up to 2029. The increases are driven primarily by assumptions about macroeconomic growth and fiscal drag. Legislative changes will give a slight boost to growth in 2026. In 2028 and 2029, legislative changes will slow revenue growth down markedly: higher social contribution rates, in particular, will lead to shortfalls in revenue from wage tax and income tax. The estimate does not factor in the usual compensation for bracket creep because it is based on current legislation.

The Federal Government had initiated or planned tax cuts (beyond what was covered by the tax estimate). 10

Additional shortfalls will arise in the years that follow if there is further compensation for the bracket creep of the previous year. The Federal Government had also been planning to introduce accelerated tax depreciation methods again. These plans appear to have been abandoned now ‒ but improving investment incentives will probably be on the agenda of a new Federal Government, too. 

In general, there are also legal uncertainties, not least with regard to revenue from the solidarity surcharge (annual revenue: ¼ % of GDP

Compared with the tax estimate of May 2024, the new tax estimate contains noticeable revenue shortfalls. In addition to the weaker developments seen this year, this is also due to less favourable macroeconomic assumptions. This year, net shortfalls will amount to €8½ billion. Next year, they will rise to €12½ billion and then remain roughly at that level. Estimates for the years from 2024 to 2028 are thus ¼ % of GDP

The deficit of central government including off-budget entities was markedly higher in the third quarter of 2024 than in the previous year. The increase was primarily due to one-off effects. The deficit climbed from €9 billion to just over €19 billion. On balance, this was mainly due to a sharp rise in the Climate Fund’s deficit.

In the core budget, the deficit fell slightly. At 7½ %, central government revenue rose steeply. Tax revenue climbed by 3½ %, bolstered by a decline in deductions for transfers to the EU

The deficit in the off-budget entities rose sharply due to strong outflows of funds and a revenue-side one-off effect in the Climate Fund.

From the current perspective, the core budget deficit is likely to remain considerably below the estimated €49 billion. According to the October tax estimate, tax revenue will be €3½ billion below budget estimates (after deducting global revenue shortfalls of €2 billion). However, this will be offset by unbudgeted privatisation proceeds of €3½ billion. 11

The coalition government collapsed in November. A previously planned supplementary budget for 2024 has not been approved, but this could still happen. The government draft has been passed on to the Bundestag, which could yet update it and make amendments beyond that. A supplementary budget would have to comply with the requirements of the debt brake.

An updated supplementary budget is likely to open up some scope with regard to the debt brake. As previously described, fiscal developments in 2024 are expected to be better than planned. However, some major factors are not counted towards the debt brake. For instance, the relief relative to the budget plan described above primarily concerns financial transactions. Higher than planned privatisation proceeds and lower than planned expenditure on the generational capital fund do not have any positive effect on structural net borrowing relevant to the debt brake. However, the scope for borrowing under the debt brake will expand considerably, as the debt brake-relevant cyclical burden on the budget resulting from the weaker than projected development of nominal GDP

Overall, then, it seems plausible that the upper limit of the debt brake will be undershot significantly – by more than €10 billion – in 2024. 12

The deficit of the off-budget entities is likely to be somewhat lower than planned. This is on account of very disparate factors.

The debt-financed Armed Forces Fund looks set to record a smaller than planned deficit. After the first three quarters of the year, only one-half of its budgeted funds had been spent. The obligations arising from procurement contracts reported at the budget outturn for 2023 and the usual delays in new contracts suggest that the planned deficit of €20 billion will be significantly undershot.

The deficit in the Climate Fund is likely to be somewhat lower than planned, even excluding additional government grants from the central government’s draft supplementary budget. After three quarters, the deficit stood at €24 billion – already fairly close to the projected €29 billion. However, with estimated annual revenues of just over €20 billion, it appears that around three-quarters of the receipts from emission allowances sales were still outstanding. Despite far higher than planned expenditure on green electricity subsidies laid down in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz – EEG

Lastly, there are surpluses in off-budget entities for which no economic plans have been published. In the first instance, this concerns the ESF

Now that the coalition government has collapsed, the Bundestag is not expected to adopt a budget for 2025 before a new election is held. The adjustment meeting that was originally meant to take place by the morning of 15 November 2024 was cancelled.

In the absence of a valid budget plan at the start of the new year, the rules for interim management of the budget will apply. Under these rules, any government spending to fulfil legal and contractual obligations is authorised, though the government has little scope for additional expenditure. However, extrabudgetary expenditure is an option in the event of unforeseeable and unavoidable needs arising. For the financing of total expenditure, there is scope for borrowing in addition to regular revenue. According to Article 111 of the Basic Law, the government may borrow up to one-quarter of the total amount of the previous year’s budget – a figure in the order of €120 billion. However, it must be borne in mind that the much tighter restrictions under the debt brake still apply and must be met when the 2025 budget is approved in due course.

All in all, interim budgetary management ensures stable fiscal policy and does not commit the government to pursuing an austerity policy. For instance, there are already extensive obligations for 2025 in the off-budget entities that can be fulfilled just as well under interim budgetary management. Extrabudgetary expenditure can be used to respond to emergency situations. However, the timely adoption of a central government budget for 2025 would open up greater political scope. Accompanying economic plans would then also grant additional spending authorisations for off-budget entities.

One judicial risk concerns revenue from the solidarity surcharge. On 12 November 2024, the Federal Constitutional Court heard a constitutional complaint regarding this surcharge. 13

State government core budgets closed the third quarter with a slight surplus of €½ billion. This represented a significant deterioration of just under €6 billion compared with the same quarter of the previous year. A one-off effect in Hesse played a key role here. 14

In the first half of the year, the earnings of state government core budgets and off-budget entities deteriorated significantly, by €7 billion. They thus recorded a deficit of €3½ billion. Although taxes rose substantially, by 4½ %, overall revenue saw only sluggish growth of 1½ %. In particular, revenue from economic activity fell significantly: Hamburg received a very large dividend payment last year that will not be made in the current year. 15

For the year as a whole, the result is expected to deteriorate significantly on the year (2023: deficit of just over €½ billion). According to the current tax estimate, tax revenue for the year as a whole will see only moderate growth of 2½ %, which suggests that growth will be very subdued in the final quarter. Expenditure is expected to increase at a significantly faster rate than revenue, not least as a result of the sharp rise in prices. This is also the case for spending on personnel, a major expenditure item – though this will probably rise more slowly in the second half of the year than in the first half.

From the current perspective, state government finances look set to improve slightly next year. Although personnel expenditure is likely to see continued marked growth as a result of wage adjustments, the strained budgetary situation will probably weigh on other expenditure categories – not least transfers to local government. At the same time, tax revenue growth could accelerate slightly again. On balance, then, revenue could rise somewhat more strongly than expenditure.

The statutory pension insurance scheme recorded a deficit of €4½ billion in the third quarter. This was €1 billion higher than a year previously. Rising by 5½ %, revenue went up sharply. Without central government’s funding cut, the rise would have been just under ½ percentage point higher. At 6 %, expenditure grew even more strongly, with pensions increasing by 4½ % at mid-year. Compared with the previous year, the number of pensions also saw accelerated growth of ½ percentage point. Just over ½ percentage point of the increase in expenditure is attributable to new flat-rate supplements for persons who began drawing their reduced earning capacity pensions between 2001 and 2018. 16

The pension insurance scheme could close 2024 with a deficit. In the same quarter of the previous year, it posted a surplus of €1½ billion. After the first three quarters, the pension insurance scheme recorded a cumulated deficit of €4½ billion (previous year: deficit of just over €2½ billion). In the fourth quarter, a significant seasonal surplus is usually generated, as contribution receipts from bonuses are expected. In addition, earnings subject to compulsory contributions are increasingly replacing social contribution-exempt inflation compensation bonuses; this is likely to raise receipts somewhat more significantly than has been the case so far this year. At around €44 billion, the free reserves (sustainability reserve) would continue to considerably exceed the minimum value of 0.2 times the scheme’s monthly expenditure (around €5½ billion).

In 2025, the deficit is likely to expand considerably. 17

From the mid-2020s onwards, demographic factors will weigh significantly more heavily on pension funds. On the expenditure side, the pressure will increase as particularly large birth cohorts reach retirement age. This will also weigh on revenue. Contribution rates will then have to rise considerably (see also the supplementary information entitled “Social contribution rates to rise sharply”).

The Federal Employment Agency achieved a balanced budget in the third quarter, following a surplus of €1 billion one year previously. 18

The Federal Employment Agency could also achieve a broadly balanced result for the year as a whole. This would represent a deterioration on the previous year (2023: +€3 billion). A surplus of €2 billion was still envisaged in the budget plan. At the end of the first three quarters, the Federal Employment Agency recorded a cumulated deficit of €1 billion (previous year: +€1½ billion). A surplus is regularly generated in the final quarter of the year owing to contributions paid on seasonal bonuses. Compounding this, contributions are likely to rise sharply, partly because regular wage components are increasingly replacing social contribution-exempt inflation compensation bonuses. However, there are no signs of spending growth tailing off. Expenditure is thus likely to rise much more sharply than revenue.

A deficit is expected next year as unemployment rises and average per capita benefits increase along with wages. The Federal Employment Agency’s contribution receipts are likely to continue growing markedly, especially as regular wages come to replace social contribution-exempt inflation compensation bonuses. However, unemployment is likely to rise, and average per capita benefits will probably increase significantly owing to the strong wage developments to date. On top of this, federal legislators have decided to reimburse the Federal Employment Agency less in administrative costs for recipients of the civic allowance in order to relieve the pressure on their own budget, increasing the deficit once more. In view of the Federal Government’s autumn 2024 assumptions regarding macroeconomic developments, the Federal Employment Agency anticipates a deficit of almost €1½ billion next year.

Darvas, Z., L. Welslau and J. Zettelmeyer (2024), The implications of the European Union's new fiscal rules, Bruegel, Policy Brief Issue 10/2024.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2024a), German government budget in times of crisis – developments in the period 2020 to 2023, Monthly Report, February 2024, pp. 59‑64.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2024b), Public finances, Monthly Report, August 2024.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2024c), State government finances in 2023: situation worsens, but structural balance still in surplus, Monthly Report, October 2024.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2024d), An international comparison of the tax wedge on labour: the difference between pension contributions and taxes, Monthly Report, June 2024.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2023), Public finances, Monthly Report, November 2023, pp. 61‑85.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2022), Inflation-induced bracket creep in the income tax scale, Monthly Report, June 2022, pp. 63‑73.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2019), Long-term outlook for the statutory pension insurance scheme, Monthly Report, October 2019, pp. 53‑81.

Deutsche Bundesbank (2018), Public finances, Monthly Report, November 2018, pp. 54‑65.

European Commission (2024), 2024 Ageing Report. Economic and Budgetary Projections for the EU

Federal Ministry of Finance (2024), Sechster Bericht zur Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen.

Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (2023), Rentenversicherungsbericht 2023.

German Advisory Council on the Assessment of Developments in the Health Care System (2018), Bedarfsgerechte Steuerung der Gesundheitsversorgung, Gutachten 2018, June 2018.

German Council of Economic Experts (2018), Für mehr Strukturwandel in der Krankenhausversorgung, joint press release of the German Council of Economic Experts and the German Advisory Council on the Assessment of Developments in the Health Care System, December 2018.

Independent Advisory Board of the Stability Council (2024), Extraordinary statement on the application of the new EU

Karmann, A., F. Rösel and M. Schneider (2016), Produktivitätsmotor Gesundheitswirtschaft: Finanziert sich der medizinisch-technische Fortschritt selbst? ifo

Reif, S., S. Schubert and A. Wambach (2024), Reformvorschlag für einen nachhaltigen Risikostrukturausgleich, ZEW