How do information advantages and regulation influence banks’ real estate activities in other European countries?

Research Brief | 72nd edition – January 2025: A substantial share of bank loans of euro area banks is secured with real estate. In a new study, we examine whether, in the low interest rate environment, banks invested more in foreign real estate-backed lending. Our results suggest that regulatory differences between the bank’s home country and possible destination countries matter for banks’ search for yield.

How the German natural gas market responds to supply and demand shocks

Research Brief | 71st edition – November 2024: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis in 2022 that posed major challenges to the German economy and sparked broad debate on the economic ramifications of the marked rise in natural gas prices. In a new study, we examine the causes and consequences of this crisis and show how supply shocks and a surge in demand for natural gas storage impacted on natural gas prices and industrial production in Germany.

Financial repression as an “easy way” out of debt?

Research Brief | 70th edition – October 2024: Financial repression is intended to help the government deleverage over time, for example following crises, by artificially lowering the yield on government bonds. However, its impact on the deb-to-GDP ratio also depends on how it affects the economy as a whole, as financial repression also influences private investment and saving decisions. In view of these macroeconomic interrelationships, financial repression can lead to a net rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. A new study suggests that this is what happened in the United States following the Second World War.

How the design of own funds requirements can influence banks’ behaviour

Research Brief | 69th edition – September 2024: Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) have to comply with additional buffer requirements owing to their size and interconnectedness within the banking sector. The buffer level banks are expected to meet depends on their exposures at a certain point in time. A new study shows that G-SIBs reduce their exposures more strongly – twice as strongly, in fact – than other banks at period-end reporting dates. As a result, the buffer level may be too low to cover the additional risk associated with G-SIBs.

Consequences of transiting to a climate-neutral economy

Research Brief | 68th edition – August 2024: Transition risk is the risk arising from the economy’s shift towards net-zero carbon emissions. Applying a novel methodology, we find that large unanticipated increases to transition risk are predominantly related to political events and can have notable macroeconomic consequences. Interestingly, in the short run these shocks do not uniformly generate inflationary pressure, challenging the prevalent notion of “greenflation.” Finally, our results highlight an important role for country-specificities, suggesting, for instance, that there may also be economic benefits attached to the transition. Overall, while international policy coordination is essential, these findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy interventions to each nation's unique economic context.

The effects of government support measures such as the gas price brake

Research Brief | 67th edition – July 2024: Energy prices skyrocketed as a result of the Russian war of aggression. Government stabilization measures such as the gas price brake were intended to support overall economic development. Our study compares the effects of two fiscal stabilization measures for companies: subsidies in the form of quantity-limited price guarantees and production-independent direct transfers. It turns out that the effectiveness of the measures depends on the availability of the good.

Will the digital euro strengthen financial stability? Yes, within certain limits

Research Brief | 66th edition – June 2024: This article studies the impact of a digital euro on financial stability. Our survey findings indicate that German households are open to the digital euro – suggesting they perceive that there are benefits to accessing a central bank digital currency. However, demand for the digital euro raises concerns about strong outflows of deposits from the banking sector, with potential implications for financial stability. We study this issue in a new macroeconomic model and conclude that the digital euro – if complemented with an appropriate holding limit, i.e. the maximum digital euro amount that an individual is permitted to hold – can actually strengthen financial stability and improve welfare.

Digital transformation and its impact on labour productivity

Research Brief | 65th edition – May 2024: The digital transformation creates scope to make workflows and production processes more efficient. To quantify the impact of digital transformation on labour productivity, research often focuses on investments in digital technologies. This perspective neglects the fact that digital intermediate inputs, such as microchips or integrated software, also represent an important transmission channel for the efficiency gains from digitalisation. In a new study, Bundesbank researchers have examined how efficiency gains in the digital sectors have affected labour productivity in Germany, France and the United States.

Right to work part-time increases mothers’ labour income

Research Brief | 64th edition – April 2024: Flexible working time arrangements can help parents reconcile family and work commitments. In this context, a new study examines the impact of the statutory right to work part-time on the labour supply and labour income of eligible mothers.

How household scanner data help improve inflation forecasting

Research Brief | 63rd edition – January 2024: Forecasting current month inflation (“nowcasting”) is a highly important exercise for central banks and market participants, especially in turbulent times. In a new study, researchers investigate how millions of granular weekly scanner data from households combined with machine learning (ML) techniques can improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation.

How do energy prices influence inflation expectations?

Research Brief | 62nd edition – November 2023: A new research paper shows that German households increase their inflation expectations following increases in their energy prices. This effect is, however, absent for high-income and well-informed households as well as for firms. Higher inflation expectations can influence saving and consumption decisions and thus aggregate demand.

Transmission of interest rate hikes depends on the level of central bank reserves held by banks

Research Brief | 61st edition – October 2023: Banks with substantial central bank reserves are earning income from their reserve holdings in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent rate hiking cycle. This could make their credit supply less sensitive to the monetary policy tightening compared to other banks. This hypothesis is examined in a new study (Fricke, Greppmair, Paludkiewicz, 2023) using the new AnaCredit dataset – a credit register harmonised across the euro area.

Rent or buy? How equity requirements for households influence decisions on home financing

Research Brief | 60th edition – August 2023: Some households contribute only a small amount of equity when buying property financed by a loan. If they then default on the loan, lenders may incur losses. Should the problem affect a large number of lenders, this could potentially jeopardise financial stability. Minimum requirements for the own funds households need to provide can limit losses that may arise. However, this would mean that some households can no longer obtain loans in the desired amount. A Bundesbank study shows that a large proportion of the households interested in buying which would be affected by this are then willing to buy a cheaper property or to save more in order to buy at a later date. The impact on homeownership is therefore likely to be smaller in the medium than in the short term.

Banks’ internal credit risk models: incentives for implementation and impact on risk management

Research Brief | 59th edition – July 2023: Internal risk models play an important role in ensuring capital adequacy at banks. Banking supervisors keep a particularly close eye on them, as banks have some degrees of freedom when it comes to model design. A new study examines the incentives for banks to implement internal risk models, analyses their impact on risk management and explains possible consequences of a new regulatory proposal regarding application of such models.

How the US dollar, as a reserve currency, restricts US trade policy

Research Brief | 58th edition – May 2023: The trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018 and 2019 increased trade policy uncertainty, leading to a marked appreciation of the US dollar (USD). The obvious explanation for this is the special role played by USD investments in the global financial system as a safe haven for investors in times of high uncertainty. The USD appreciation triggered in this way in 2018 and 2019 enabled Chinese exporters to lower their prices in US dollars. As a result, the impact of the additional import tariffs imposed at the time by the United States on Chinese products was significantly reduced.

The effectiveness of green collateral policy as an instrument of climate policy

Research Brief | 57th edition – April 2023: The debate surrounding climate change mitigation measures has lately also extended to central bank instruments. One of the points under discussion is the preferential treatment of green bonds in central bank monetary policy operations. This would improve the financing conditions of firms with low emissions and thus create an incentive for green investment. Using a novel model, we analyse the climate policy and macroeconomic implications of a green-tilted collateral policy and are able to identify only minor effects on green investment.

Negative interest rate policy led to negative interest rates on corporate deposits and higher fees

Research Brief | 56th edition – March 2023: The Eurosystem’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP) incentivised banks to also charge their customers negative deposit rates. My analysis shows that German banks did actually charge negative interest rates on corporate deposits at times. However, the banks that did so were primarily those which relied heavily on household deposits as a source of funding. These banks were very reluctant to apply negative interest rates to household deposits as well, and thus probably faced particularly high margin pressure. It was primarily these banks that also charged higher fees in order to ease this pressure.

Lower TARGET2 payment flows due to EU sanctions against Russia

Research Brief | 55th edition – February 2023: In recent years, the European Union has imposed various types of financial sanctions against Russian banks. A new study examines whether these measures have affected payment flows in TARGET2.

The exchange rate regime is key for the effects of the Bundesbank’s monetary policy on European countries from 1974 to 1998

Research Brief | 54th edition – December 2022: Record inflation in the euro area has led the ECB Governing Council to start raising its key interest rates. The effects on the domestic economy and spillover effects on foreign countries may primarily depend on whether exchange rates are floating or fixed. A new empirical study shows that, during the time of the Deutschmark, the Bundesbank’s monetary policy was transmitted to a significantly greater degree to neighbouring European countries with fixed exchange rates to the Deutschmark than to those with floating exchange rates to the Deutschmark.

Individuals in Germany have suffered financial losses during the pandemic

Research Brief | 53rd edition – September 2022: A Bundesbank survey shows that individuals living in Germany suffered different types of financial losses during the pandemic. Primarily individuals with lower incomes reported losses in wages and salaries which persisted much longer than other financial losses, such as falling securities prices. The latter were frequently reported at the start of the pandemic, but were subsequently offset at least partly, according to the respondents. It was mainly the more persistent wage and salary losses that changed households’ consumption and saving decisions. Altered saving and consumption behaviour can, in turn, affect the transmission of monetary policy measures.

On the replenishment of securitised portfolios and the role of reputation and trans-parency in the securitisation market

Research Brief | 52nd edition – August 2022: In a securitisation, a clearly defined and immutable loan portfolio is removed from a bank’s balance sheet and converted into marketable securities – that is the general understanding of how securitisation works. However, contrary to this view, the composition of securitised loan portfolios may change during the life of the securities. A new study explains why this is the case and examines the impact of replenishment on the quality of securitised portfolios. Originators’ reputation and transparency in the securitisation market are identified as key determinants in the selection of loans used to replenish securitised portfolios.

What Moves Markets?

Research Brief | 51st edition – August 2022: Are asset prices driven by news or by factors unrelated to economic fundamentals, such as market sentiment? In most asset pricing models news play a dominant role, but most empirical applications find only a low explanatory power of news. A new study examines this problem using an extensive time-stamped event database and finds that about half of all high-frequency market movements can be attributed to news.

How much foreign currency must a central bank buy to implement a minimum exchange rate? Estimation using the Swiss National Bank as an example

Research Brief | 50th edition – July 2022: Implementing a minimum exchange rate regime by buying foreign currency eases monetary conditions domestically and may thus have a direct impact on the inflation rate. However, such foreign currency purchases involve a risky expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet total. A new model can now predict what expansion of the balance sheet a central bank must expect if it wishes to implement a minimum exchange rate in the foreign exchange market.

How internationally coordinated carbon pricing would affect the economy and welfare

Research Brief | 49th edition – June 2022: Climate change is a global challenge that requires international policy coordination. This conclusion is also borne out in a recent study on the macroeconomics implications of carbon pricing. Several different scenarios are considered – different regions introduce carbon pricing schemes unilaterally or in cooperation, and in the presence or absence of border adjustment schemes.

The child bonus in the coronavirus pandemic: a case of redistribution rather than fiscal stimulus

Research Brief | 48th edition – June 2022: As a response to the Covid-19 pandemic, parents in Germany received a series of transfer payments from the state in 2020 and 2021. This so-called child bonus (“Kinderbonus”) amounted to a total of €450 per child. A new study finds that the child bonus led to only a slight increase in household spending. Therefore, the child bonus should be seen less as a fiscal stimulus measure and more as an instrument of redistribution from the general population to families.

Climate change concerns and actions – Can provision of information motivate people to fight climate change?

Research Brief | 47th edition – May 2022: Are individuals concerned enough about climate change to change their behavior and bear additional costs as a consequence? How can they be motivated to fight climate change? A Bundesbank survey conducted between April 2020 and December 2021 shows that people are more concerned about climate change than about the state of the economy. During most of the ongoing pandemic, only the coronavirus was of a higher concern. While people who rate climate change as a serious issue are also more willing to take on additional costs to help fight climate change, providing information on ways to reduce carbon emissions further increases their willingness to do so.

Why central banks should aim for a positive inflation target

Research Brief | 46th edition – May 2022: The rate of inflation has a bearing on the relative price of individual products and therefore on demand for those products. Using new micro price data, we investigate how high the optimal inflation rate must be to prevent relative product demand from being distorted. Contradicting a common claim, we find that the optimal rate is not zero for a large part of the euro area, but is, in fact, clearly in positive territory.

The impact of EU immigration on labour market outcomes in Germany over the past decade

Research Brief | 45th edition – March 2022: In the mid-2010s, wages in Germany recorded comparatively weak growth while employment was surprisingly strong. A new study examines how immigration in the context of EU free movement of workers, in particular from the “new” Central and Eastern European Member States, contributed to these developments on the German labour market.

Identifying Indicators of Systemic Risk

Research Brief | 44th edition – December 2021: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a consensus rapidly emerged that systemic risk – a central concept in financial stability – needed to be contained going forward. However, to this day experts cannot agree on how to even measure systemic risk in the first place. In the past few years, researchers have proposed a plethora of indicators, making matters more difficult for policymakers. Our study proposes an analytical approach designed to lend structure to this universe of indicators for measuring systemic risk.

The effects of the ECB’s new inflation target on private households’ inflation expectations

Research Brief | 43rd edition – November 2021: Is there a difference between the inflation expectations of private households in Germany formed under the ECB’s previous target definition of “below, but close to, 2%” and those under the new inflation target of “symmetrically 2%”? New survey results from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households (BOP-HH) show that the new inflation target is associated with moderately higher inflation expectations for the next two to three years. The differences become more accentuated when the respondents are also told that the new monetary policy strategy entails the possibility of inflation exceeding the target.

Banks with low profitability increasingly taking risks in the low interest rate environment

Research Brief | 42nd edition – October 2021: Banks grant long-term loans funded by short-term customer deposits. This maturity transformation earns banks money because long-term interest rates are generally higher than short-term interest rates. At the same time, this exposes banks to the risk that interest rates will rise, forcing them to pay more for deposits in the short term already, whereas they only receive the higher interest on new loans. In the low interest rate environment which has prevailed over the past few years, the premium on assuming interest rate risk has trended downward. At the same time, banks with poor profitability have stepped up their maturity transformation and thus also this risk. This is potentially a sign of a search for yield.

Short sellers anticipate governments’ fiscal space during the COVID-19 pandemic

Research Brief | 41st edition – August 2021: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic had an unprecedented impact on the global economy, forcing governments to take rapid fiscal action. However, generous government support programmes depend on the government having a good credit rating. How do financial market players take fiscal constraints into account in their investment decisions? A new study looks into this question by analysing developments in short positions in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.

Dynamics in the crude oil market dictated by the manufacturing sector

Research Brief | 40th edition – May 2021: It is often said that industry in oil-importing countries is especially hard hit when oil prices climb. However, a new study reveals that the manufacturing sector actually often does well during episodes of elevated oil prices. This is because, from a global perspective, that particular sector is a driving force behind oil price movements. The manufacturing sector’s healthy performance thus bolsters the economy of oil-importing countries in times of rising oil prices. Conversely, industry often exerts negative effects when oil prices fall.

Monetary policy played a pivotal role in the Great Depression

Research Brief | 39th edition – March 2021: The root causes of the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933 have been researched extensively. In this context, economic historians view central bank policy as having played a pivotal role, something which empirical modelling often fails to confirm. A new study likewise examines this influence empirically, but more explicitly takes into account the functioning of the international monetary system at the time – the international gold standard.

How institutional investment funds’ reach for yield intensifies asset price volatility

Research Brief | 38th edition – January 2021: Institutional funds manage the majority of the assets under management of all German investment funds. This research brief documents that institutional funds act in a strongly procyclical manner: they actively invest in higher-yielding, longer-duration and lower-rated assets as yield spreads compress. We show that this intensifies asset price volatility and highlight reasons behind this procyclical investment behaviour.

Effects of the ECB asset purchase programme on economic activity and prices in the euro area

Research Brief | 37th edition – December 2020: At the beginning of 2015, the ECB Governing Council decided to implement an asset purchase programme to increase inflation by lowering longer-term interest rates. The Research Brief examines how the programme has affected prices and economic activity in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The authors are particularly interested in whether the effects differ across countries.

Banks as investors in government bonds during the crisis – central bank-funded search for yield or de-risking?

Research Brief | 36th edition – November 2020: Did German banks take on a particularly high level of risk during the financial crisis by investing in risky government bonds? A new study examines the behaviour of German banks between 2008 and 2014 and reveals that German banks – especially those that received government support and were comparatively undercapitalised – de-risked. This finding contrasts with the results of similar studies for banks in the euro area periphery countries.

How are households’ consumption plans affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?

Research Brief | 35th edition – November 2020: This research brief reports how consumption plans and spending propensities were affected at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. An online survey shows that private households have been significantly more cautious in their spending intentions, while the average marginal propensity to spend has remained at an elevated level.

Households’ Expectations and Unintended Consequences of Policy Announcements

Research Brief | 34th edition – November 2020: Announcements of policy actions may influence households’ expectations about future individual and aggregate economic outcomes. We show that households have lowered their expectations with regard to the economic situation and that uncertainty about the economy increased during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also show that households who received information on stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy measures, surprisingly, become more pessimistic concerning their future income and GDP growth.

How (not) to calculate currency misalignment

Research Brief | 33rd edition – June 2020: What is the appropriate exchange rate at which neither domestic nor foreign firms gain an unfair competitive advantage? A new study examines whether the estimation methods currently being used are conducive to answering this question. It turns out that this is often not the case.

Higher wages in Germany do not materially reduce trade imbalances

Research Brief | 32nd edition – March 2020: Can wage hikes in Germany contribute to a reduction in global trade imbalances? A new study answers this question. Applying a general equilibrium model, it shows that, although wage hikes in Germany reduce the country’s trade surplus, the quantitative effects are relatively small and depend on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy response.

Expectations of households and firms and central bank communication

Research Brief | 31st edition – February 2020: Recently, many central banks have begun communicating not just their current monetary policy, but also its probable predicted future path. However, the effectiveness of this communication hinges on how strongly it is able to influence the inflation expectations of households and firms. A standard property of macroeconomic models is that expectations respond very strongly to such announcements. A new theoretical study shows that the effects are much smaller in a model capable of matching survey evidence on expectations formation.

Reasons for the low homeownership rate in Germany

Research Brief | 30th edition – January 2020: Germany has the second lowest share of homeowners of all OECD countries. This is driven by housing policies that produce incentives to rent. New studies show that alternative policies could increase the homeownership rate and reduce wealth inequality.

Price trends over the product life cycle and monetary policy

Research Brief | 29th edition – October 2019: Consumer goods prices systematically depend on product age. A new study analyses this dependence and shows that it plays an important role in aggregate inflation and the optimal inflation rate.

Connectedness between exchange rates: how machine learning opens up fresh insights

Research Brief | 28th edition – September 2019: Are the exchange rates between certain currencies more closely connected than those of other currencies? Answers to this question can be provided by econometric methods. A new study shows how machine learning can deliver useful insights into this issue.

On the reference indicator for determining the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer

Research Brief | 27th edition – July 2019: The global financial crisis was a lesson that it is not enough to merely monitor the stability of individual banks – the stability of the banking sector as a whole is also a crucial factor, which is precisely what the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), a key instrument under the Basel III regime, is there to help safeguard. However, recent research indicates that adhering too strictly to the reference indicator envisaged under the Basel III framework might lead to a situation in which supervisors activate the CCyB either too late or not at all ahead of a future financial crisis.

Why ECB announcements move markets

Research Brief | 26th edition – June 2019: Whenever financial markets react to ECB Governing Council meetings, the explanation seems obvious: the Governing Council surprised markets, for instance, by changing its policy rate or by hinting at a future rate change. Any market reaction would thus stem from unexpected announcements about monetary policy. The response of different asset prices such as bond yields and stock prices, however, often contradicts this simple explanation. A new study indicates that these seemingly puzzling reactions are driven by information about the economic outlook that the ECB reveals via its announcements.

More stability through liquidity regulation

Research Brief | 25th edition – May 2019: Regulatory requirements for banks are often criticised as having an adverse impact on lending and hence, indirectly, on the real economy. A new research paper uses a theoretical partial equilibrium model to study the direct effects a liquidity coverage ratio could have on banks’ loan supply.

How would a shift from taxing wages to taxing real estate affect the aggregate economy?

Research Brief | 24th edition – January 2019: Tax reform designed to improve the conditions for macroeconomic growth without weighing on government budgets has been the topic of recent debate in Europe. One proposal on the table suggests reducing taxes on wages whilst at the same time raising those on land and property. A new study uses a modern DSGE model to examine how, within this model framework, such a shift would impact on the aggregate economy and to what extent property owners and tenants would be affected.

A costly Brexit? De-liberalisation of trade in services and its potential cost

Research Brief | 23rd edition – December 2018: In many areas, the ramifications of Brexit are not yet clear. It is likely, however, that the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will lead to a de-liberalisation of trade in services. A new study examines what this change could mean for individual EU Member States.

Tighter bank capital requirements do not reduce lending long term

Research Brief | 22nd edition – November 2018: Many countries imposed tighter bank capital requirements following the 2008-09 financial crisis in order to repair the structural flaws in the banking system exposed during the crisis and thereby safeguard financial stability. A new study for the United States explores the macroeconomic effects of a tightening of bank capital requirements.

The impact of Eurosystem bond purchases on the repo market

Research Brief | 21st edition – September 2018: German sovereign bonds have become scarce on the European repo market over recent years. A new analysis investigates the impact of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy asset purchase programme on the repo market, and shows that central bank securities lending can help to counteract scarcity.

How interest rate expectations respond to monetary policy in a low-interest-rate setting

Research Brief | 20th edition – August 2018: In the low-interest-rate setting, the Eurosystem’s accommodative monetary policy has been relying to a greater extent on non-standard measures and forward guidance on the future path of policy rates. A new paper examines how these measures have worked across the term structure and how market expectations have evolved during the phase of low interest rates. The results illustrate that the Eurosystem can continue to influence market participants’ interest rate expectations at the effective lower bound by way of unconventional monetary policy measures.

Two stress tests examine the resilience of German banks to a drop in real estate prices

Research Brief | 19th edition – June 2018: German credit institutions are sufficiently capitalised to deal with potential losses from their residential mortgage exposures that could arise if house prices, which have been rising strongly since 2010, were to fall sharply. This is shown by the results of two current stress tests that have been developed by Bundesbank experts for risk analyses.

The trouble with predictions

Research Brief | 18th edition – April 2018: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Those familiar words are no less true in the world of economic forecasting. A new study considers how far into the future it makes sense to forecast.

From an individual-bank view to a system-wide view on capital requirements under crisis scenarios

Research Brief | 17th edition – February 2018: How much capital is needed both at the individual bank level and for the system as a whole especially in situations of macroeconomic stress? And is the capital in the system distributed across individual banks in the optimal way to cover potential systemic losses? A new study gives answers to these questions in an integrated supervisory framework.

Increased investment abroad boosts domestic investment

Research Brief | 16th edition – November 2017: True to the maxim that a euro can only ever be spent once, it is often thought that foreign direct investment by German firms means that those firms reduce their investment in Germany. A new study examines this hypothesis, exploring the relationship between domestic and foreign investment.

How disagreement in inflation expectations can influence the transmission of monetary policy

Research Brief | 15th edition – September 2017: Does a less expansionary monetary policy, for example, an increase in interest rates, lead to lower inflation and dampened inflation expectations? Many empirical and theoretical studies suggest that it does. A new study, however, shows that, if inflation expectations diverge widely, a less expansionary monetary policy can lead to increased inflation and higher inflation expectations.

How firm productivity impacts on the optimal inflation rate

Research Brief | 14th edition – August 2017: The productivity of many firms evolves over time. This impacts on the optimal inflation rate – the rate of price increase with the least distortionary effect on relative goods prices. Our estimates for the United States suggest that, due to firm-level productivity changes, the optimal inflation rate has dropped from somewhat over 2% in the mid-1980s to a current level of roughly 1%.

Is the single monetary policy producing different effects across euro-area countries?

Research Brief | 13th edition – June 2017: The Eurosystem’s monetary policy is geared towards macroeconomic developments over the entire euro area. Does it produce different effects in the individual member states? And, if yes, how big are the differences? Our empirical study on interest rate policy examines this question for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the four largest economies in the euro area.

Saving patterns in the low-interest-rate setting – results of the 2016 PHF summer survey

Research Brief | 12th edition – April 2017: Households in Germany are expecting interest rates to stay low over the relatively long haul, with many intending to adjust their saving behaviour in response. These are two of the key findings from the 2016 Panel on Household Finances (PHF) summer survey.

Monetary policy effectiveness in times of financial market volatility

Research Brief | 11th edition – March 2017: The years following the 2007-08 financial crisis saw central banks in the United States and other industrialized countries adopt highly expansionary monetary policy measures in an effort to stimulate the economy. But how effective have those policies been? A new study explores how effective an expansionary monetary policy stance can be in such turbulent times.

Short selling below the radar

Research Brief | 10th edition – February 2017: A new EU regulation sheds the first light on the hitherto hidden practices of short sellers. This legislation requires short positions to be made public as soon as they exceed a certain threshold. How are market participants responding to this new transparency? A new study looks into this question.

How financial shocks affect inflation

Research Brief | 9th edition – January 2017: Demand in the USA and other industrial nations collapsed dramatically during the financial crisis and yet this did not lead to deflation. The reasons for this have still not been fully explained. A new study examines the extent to which financial shocks have a bearing on the path of inflation.