Recent publications
Recent publications
Since the financial crisis, financial cycles – medium to longer-term co-movements between credit aggregates and asset prices – have increasingly been the subject of both research and economic policy debate. Monetary policy plays a key role in this context, as it can help stabilise financial cycles within the scope of its primary objective, for example by taking account of developments in the housing market when setting interest rates. Looking back, such a monetary policy in the United States would have been able to significantly suppress the boom and subsequent bust in the US housing market in the 2000s – and thus also the far-reaching implications for its real economy.
In the October 2025 Monthly Report, one article looks at the finances of the European Union, examining Member States’ financial relationships with the EU in 2024 as well as the multiannual financial framework for the period from 2028 to 2034. In another article, authors analyse the effects of global uncertainty on international portfolio flows.
The September 2025 Monthly Report examines the impact of exchange rate changes on domestic prices in times of high inflation and describes the performance of German credit institutions in 2024. It also outlines options for large-value payments in central bank digital currency.
If a broader range of collateral is permitted for funding via central bank lending, this gives banks an incentive to choose previously ineligible, lower-rated assets as collateral instead of government bonds. Banks could then more easily use government bonds as collateral in the private sector repo market and thus help to alleviate asset scarcity there. This hypothesis is investigated in a new study (Greppmair, Paludkiewicz, Steffen, 2024).
The July 2025 Monthly Report examines the reasons behind the multi-year decline in German export market shares. It also examines collateral management in the euro area since the introduction of the Eurosystem Collateral Management System (ECMS). Another article looks at the key results of the latest monetary policy strategy review.
How does monetary policy affect the exchange rate? This question is important to central banks because the exchange rate has an indirect impact on inflation. It has therefore been looked at extensively in the economic literature. Even so, there is no consensus on how monetary policy impulses take effect over time and on their overall importance for exchange rate developments. A recent study delivers new insights: monetary policy impulses take full effect with no time lag and could play a greater role for exchange rate developments than previously thought.
The June 2025 edition of the Monthly Report contains the Bundesbank’s current Forecast for Germany, which provides an outlook for how the German economy is likely to develop in the near future in view of US tariff policy and the new Federal Government’s fiscal package. A second article looks at the review of the Eurosystem’s operational framework for implementing monetary policy. Another article considers the question of when insurees retire and how pension reductions and increases could be determined depending on the timing of retirement.
The greenhouse gas emissions of the Bundesbank's euro-denominated own portfolio (euro portfolio) and currency reserves have declined overall in recent years. For the first time, greenhouse gas figures on the shares of the Eurosystem's monetary policy holdings, which include corporate bonds, covered bonds and Pfandbriefe (covered bonds), are also disclosed.
The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 brought about an abrupt increase in political and economic uncertainty. In a new study, we show that German banks reduced lending to firms in the United Kingdom (UK) following the referendum. These firms reduced employment and investment as a result of the credit supply shock. Multinational corporations in the UK were able to mitigate this decline in external financing by making greater use of internal capital markets operated within their international corporate structures. Our study shows that the outcome of the Brexit referendum put pressure on the UK economy via indirect channels as well. Moreover, it highlights the role of multinational corporations, which were better able to mitigate the impact.
Central banks have used communication about the inflation outlook as an additional policy tool in response to the post-pandemic inflation surge. We present novel survey evidence that the ECB’s guidance about its projected inflation path can substantially lower households’ inflation expectations when kept in a sophisticatedly simple (KISS) way.
The April 2025 Monthly Report presents the results of the 2023 household wealth survey. Another article in the report provides an up-to-date overview of the role cash plays in German society. The report also covers the debt situation in the private non-financial sector of the euro area since the start of monetary policy tightening.
In recent years, geopolitical risks have risen in many places. This not only has a direct impact on the countries affected, but also on international trade. In a new study, we show that rising geopolitical risks in trade partner countries dampen imports of goods, make them more expensive and impair supply chains. In addition, they are likely to be conducive to a fragmentation of global trade. Risks associated with China are particularly significant in this context.
The March 2025 Monthly Report contains a proposal to reform the debt brake and investigates access to cash in Germany. In addition to these topics, one article discusses the analysis of monetary policy communications using artificial intelligence. Another article examines the role of central securities depositories in Europe given their importance to the capital markets union. The Monthly Report also takes a look at Germany’s balance of payments in 2024.
The December 2024 Monthly Report publishes the Deutsche Bundesbank’s forecast for Germany, which provides an outlook on how the German economy is likely to develop in the near future. A second article looks into the funding costs of banks in Germany in the monetary policy interest rate cycle. Finally, an article analyses the profitability and financing of German enterprises during the monetary policy tightening period.
In the October 2024 Monthly Report, the first article investigates how a different method of recording retained earnings in the balance of payments affects the German current account surplus. The second article highlights current developments in Germany’s international interconnectedness via foreign direct investment. The third outlines the development of state government finances in 2023, noting that the situation has deteriorated, but that there is still a structural surplus. The Monthly Report then rounds off with an article examining the topic of wage developments in Germany, detailing the current situation, providing a comparison with the euro area, and offering an outlook.
The September 2024 edition of the Monthly Report examines the impact of European climate policy on German foreign direct investment and discusses the profitability of German credit institutions in 2023. In addition, it looks at the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) from the perspective of on-site inspections. The report concludes with an article on Member States’ financial relationships with the EU budget and the NextGenerationEU off-budget entity in 2023.
The July 2024 Monthly Report looks at the global disinflation process and its costs. In one of its articles, it describes the development of loans to enterprises in Germany since the start of the monetary policy tightening cycle. It also closely examines the EU banking package, a key element of which is the implementation of Basel III.
Last year, the Bundesbank’s annual accounts were shaped by the increase in the key interest rates. For the 2023 financial year, the Bundesbank reports a balanced financial result because it was able to use its financial buffers to cushion burdens in the double-digit billions. To this end, the Bundesbank released its risk provisions in full and reduced its reserves. As in previous years, no profit was transferred to the Federal budget.
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